tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-51658752011-06-07T23:25:33.250-07:00Commentary on politics, technology and stock markets guided by Elliott Wave principles. Is Bob Prechter Hari Seldon, and has he invented Psycho-History? Or is Elliot Wave no more than Ptolemaic epicycles? On Cheer's, Cliff Claven said he had an infallible system for predicting the next President, and it could predict all prior elections. His prediction: "Yelnick McWahwah." And yet, Elliott often provides remarkable predictions. Stay tuned.ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comBlogger1441100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1068428308507627212003-11-09T17:37:00.000-08:002003-11-09T17:38:32.766-08:00

See our new site at http://yelnick.typepad.com.

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1067907272081809052003-11-03T16:54:00.000-08:002003-11-03T16:54:34.420-08:00

The STU dropped a mind-bending analysis today.  Guess the last three times we have had 7% GDP growth?  At the peak in 2000 before the drop, At the peak in 1987 before the crash, and Now Intuitively we think we should be bullish when we see strong growth, but the causality is the other way around: the stock market doesn't rise after strong GDP growth, the stock

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1067647634543651462003-10-31T16:47:00.000-08:002003-10-31T16:47:16.370-08:00

As we track the Decline and Fall of the Greenspan Empire (aka The Greatest Asset Mania of All Time), the timing of the elusive Wave 2 top is the next big thing.  We all know the Ides of March is mid-month.  Less known is another day in the Roman calendar, the Nones, which in November is Nov5.  The STU today sharpened their forecast for the top to the Nones of November: a top around

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1067411930973416052003-10-28T23:18:00.000-08:002003-10-28T23:18:52.306-08:00

Yelnick has noted that Prechter has hinted at changing his count in recent newsletters.  Today he unveiled his new count.  The count may be different, but the message is the same, and the prediction is much closer to Yelnick's view: a top of around Dow10K at around Nov 11.   Prechter had counted the Dow since Jan00 as a nested series of waves 1 - 2, so that we were nearing the 3

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1067048943369387162003-10-24T19:29:00.000-07:002003-10-24T19:29:03.453-07:00

The markets have gone south since Zoran's call of a top on Oct 15.  Is this it, or will there be the final pop up to the Yelnick 78% retracement of just under Dow10k?  So far the drop has been impulsive, which supports the case for an Oct15 top.  The market will now retrace in a little wave 2.  If it goes above Dow9773, it is likely it will continue to a higher top and test Dow10k

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1066609199338796302003-10-19T17:19:00.000-07:002003-10-19T22:00:38.223-07:00

Zoran has issued an update which is very worth reading. The DOW-An EWP view-19 October-2003.pdf Calls for a top last week on Oct15. This coming week will tell how prescient this is. Zoran uses a different count than Prechter's (which is orthodox Elliott). Yelnick has promoted this count for several years also: > Prechter has wave IV bottom in 1932, Zoran and Yelnick say 1949 > Prechter has

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1066272895230221312003-10-15T19:54:00.000-07:002003-10-16T19:02:35.716-07:00

Prechter's EWT today used the C word (crash).  He sees the market nearing the end of a rare expanding wedge or diagonal triangle, which is always an ending formation.  As a consequence, he sees the odds of a rapid decline or massacre in November as the market catches up (or should we say down) to reality.  Crashes are rare events, so view this prediction as unlikely; but the extreme

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1066157400240207022003-10-14T11:50:00.000-07:002003-10-14T11:49:59.683-07:00

Corante reports this story from Investor’s Business Daily:  Mark Jensen, national director of VC services at Deloitte & Touche, weighs in on the current state of the U.S. venture capital industry. While the industry is "still recovering from whiplash," VC funding has apparently returned back to its pre-boom levels: in 1996, the VC industry invested $10 billion; in 2003, the VC

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1065770615665505632003-10-10T00:23:00.000-07:002003-10-30T11:40:33.646-08:00

Aristophanes in Lysistrata wrote a wonderful satire with a gem of truth: to prevent war, the women withhold sex.  George Gilder, before he wrote the Bible of the Reagan Revolution, Wealth and Poverty, wrote a screed against feminism called Social Suicide, which, although much vilified and satirized, also contains a germ of truth:  through marriage, young and restless men are made

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1065721978752463712003-10-09T10:52:00.000-07:002003-10-09T10:52:58.156-07:00

This disturbing report from Merrill Lynch, sent in by a loyal Yelnick reader:  that recent GDP figures assume a much larger increase in tech spending than other sources support.  This on top of the head-fake employment numbers a week ago, where the Labor Dept reported an increase, but the fine print showed they had removed a much larger number from previous reports, so they were able

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1065570388956990022003-10-07T16:46:00.000-07:002003-10-07T16:46:28.496-07:00

Fortune reported more tech optimism today.  In addition, in a remarkably quick turnaround, the VCs now seem starved for deal flow.  ("What ye shall sow, so ye shall reap").  In the last few weeks a stack of 'social networking' companies - Friendster, LinkedIn, Tribe - got funded at higher than recent A round valuations.  More significantly, they were chased by VCs wishing to get in

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1065570077751683742003-10-07T16:41:00.000-07:002003-10-07T16:41:17.533-07:00

Wave action suggests higher highs ahead.  We appear back to the march towards the 78% tretracement level of Dow9930, and therefore back towards a turn date of around 11/11.  Also, Prechter has hinted in his last two Theorists that he might rejigger the count from wave 2 of (3) of [3] down, to wave B after a wave A down into last October.  Wave B's behave like wave 2's except can go

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1065385890430787762003-10-05T13:31:00.000-07:002003-10-05T13:32:02.186-07:00

Scandal Candidate: Cheney and UA93 Yelnick said: "Prechter has gone out on his limb, and predicted that Bush too will be brought down by some scandal, yet to emerge, for actions already taken." My scandal candidate: The fact (reported by Dan Balz and Bob Woodward in the WaPo) that Cheney ordered and then confirmed the order to shoot down UA93 on 9/11, and the suspicion-bordering-on-fact that

Ethannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1065385470239079852003-10-05T13:24:00.000-07:002003-10-05T13:56:42.590-07:00

Art Laffer, the scion of supply side, proffered a perfect tax proposal for Gov. Schwarzenegger to fix California's fiscal problem: a radical simplification down to two taxes: 6% on business net sales, and 6% on personal income less the normal middle class deductions (mortgage, charity, and - significantly - rent).  This would match current California tax revenues and would replace

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1065385220673305112003-10-05T13:20:00.000-07:002003-10-06T12:49:33.583-07:00

A NYT editorial today picked up on Yelnick's theme that the California Recall is presaging the next shift in US politics - towards more direct political action, an Internet Democracy.  What is behind this is a revolt against politicians.  This is why the perfect Presidential candidate for the times is not Howard Dean, nor Hillary, but Wesley Clarke - not just an outsider, but a

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1065379968155965152003-10-05T11:52:00.000-07:002003-10-05T11:52:47.576-07:00

Bear markets bring down the stock market icons of the prior Bull.  Martha Stewart, Frank Quattrone.  The grizzler bears begin to mawl the icons of the prior era outside of the financial arena.  This one seem to be about to knock Rush Limbaugh off his perch.  Prechter has gone out on his limb, and predicted that Bush too will be brought down by some scandal, yet to emerge, for

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1065374879625620292003-10-05T10:27:00.000-07:002003-10-05T10:27:59.373-07:00

The markets went through the 62% retracement level, and shot above the 78% level, but didn't break the Sep19 highs before reversing at the close on Friday.  Technically a wave 2 has to break the start of wave 1 to change the count, but *usually* when it passes 78% it keeps going.  Zoran's weekend update points out that the market shot up on Friday on good employment news, then turned

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1065045632716442922003-10-01T15:00:00.000-07:002003-10-01T15:09:38.356-07:00

What happened in the last two days is that the little wave [i] down extended in its subwave 5 to a lower low, and today we have begun what should be an ABC pattern back up in little wave [ii].  The Nasdaq is lagging, so watch it to spurt up.  The 61.8% retracement is SP1020 or Dow9500, and the 78% retracement is SP1030, Dow9570.  If it goes above the Sep19 highs, something else is

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1064871876009392142003-09-29T14:44:00.000-07:002003-09-29T14:44:35.743-07:00

Today went as expected.  The initial down move completed a five-wave pattern since the Sep19 high, marking the end of wave [i].  The intraday reversal began a corrective wave [ii].  More serious downside to begin once this little wave [ii] sputters to an end, possibly as early as Wed, probably by the end of the week. 

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1064793589291466582003-09-28T16:59:00.000-07:002003-09-28T16:59:48.666-07:00

ChartSpeak is running a free trial this week.  To login to the site itself, use username:  stock password:  market   To summarize: The movement since last October has been the longest sustained rally in the S&P since 1998, but appears to be ending.  Key indicator is that the small caps are pulling the market down, whereas they usually they pull the market up at the beginning of a

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1064791335032753972003-09-28T16:22:00.000-07:002003-09-28T16:22:14.916-07:00

The SF Chronicle ran several excellent articles today on the recall and what it means.  Polls show that the race is coming down to Davis vs. Ahhnold, with the margin in favor of recall beginning to widen. (The Gallup poll showed it began at 70%, faded to 53%, and now seems to be at 63% and widening; overnight party polls showed it peaking at 58%, fading to close to even, and now

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1064791306163583452003-09-28T16:21:00.000-07:002003-09-28T16:21:46.056-07:00

Fascinating insight from Tim O'Reilly in InfoWorld.  He says open source licensing isn't working as planned, as the GNU license contemplates sharing of proprietary extensions for software that is redistributed.  Instead what is happening is use of open source in web services such as Amazon, Google, etc.  No need to share as no redistribution.  Hence able to build proprietary

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1064637465705830442003-09-26T21:37:00.000-07:002003-09-26T21:37:45.336-07:00

Wave pattern is quite clearly a five-wave impulse down, which signals change of trend.  Next week should see continued down and a reversal which might last for several days.  Wave pattern also indicates that this trend change will last for a while.  Most likely pattern is down into the Xmas selling season.    What is beginning to emerge is a convergence of sectors across the stock

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1064480041512309062003-09-25T01:54:00.000-07:002003-09-25T01:54:01.770-07:00

The sudden downdraft looks impulsive and broke the lower trendline since March.  This is very significant.  Possible the end of wave 2 *finally* happened.  More on this over the weekend.   The dollar is sinking and gold is rising.  The gold bugs are out in force.  Likely to be disappointed - the STU count marks gold as about to peak.    Bush is plummeting and Hillary is

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1064442602828923412003-09-24T15:30:00.000-07:002003-09-24T15:30:02.583-07:00

Alan Newman of Crosscurrents is an astute contriarian market analyst whose chart of the month is often an eye-opener. His most recent newsletter has a stunner in it: margin debt of investors at NASD firms (who make up the Nasdaq market makers) has shot beyond manic levels reached at the peak! A statistical glitch? Unlikely - the NASD has issued a warning about this. More likely "an abyss of

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1064271673030635552003-09-22T16:01:00.000-07:002003-09-22T16:01:13.210-07:00

Watching when the herd lift their collective heads up and sniff for lions in the grass (bears in the woods!) can be pretty funny.  Dollar has been dropping over 20% for two years, and a statement at the G7 meeting that the US wants more 'flexible' exchange rates wakes everyone up.  Oh!  Should we panic and run?   How significant was the stock and bond drop today?  The indexes

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1064235781178517582003-09-22T06:03:00.000-07:002003-09-22T06:03:01.303-07:00

Yelnick has been contemplating how fib ratos might develop in market indexes. Quick remarkable how often market movements shift at fibonacci ratios of each other. Prechter attibutes it to the fear & greed action of the limbic system in investors - since natural systems tend to show fib ratios in physical elements, he postulates it is also wired into behavior from the baser brain functions. It

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1064234539440209992003-09-22T05:42:00.000-07:002003-09-22T05:42:19.006-07:00

Zoran Gayer is developing a modern version of Elliott wave theory, blending the orthodox Prechter view with the rival Neely view, and adding a better understand of chaos theory. He is attempting to solve the most bedeviling problem with ewaves, how to determine when a correction is ending. We have seen over the past year how Prechter's STU continually calls a premature end to this wave 2. For

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-106414312409003922003-09-21T04:18:00.000-07:002003-09-21T04:18:44.053-07:00

The STU has backed off its call of Sep8 as the end of wave 2.  They still suggest a near term top, in the range of SP1045, or if that is breached SP1060 +/- 8 (on the Dow the equivalents are Dow9707 or Dow9745 +/- 12).  Give them time, they will come to the Yelnick view of a 78% retrace, and a test of Dow10K.    Their timing seems optimistic as well.  Walter Bressert has tracked

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1063698565103890252003-09-16T00:49:00.000-07:002003-09-16T00:57:22.383-07:00

The wave action today of a momentary move up and slip slidin' away in both Dow and S&P (and after a longer pop up, in the Nasdaq) increases the odds that Sep8 was the end of Wave 2 since last Oct.  We are now entering wave iii territory and should see a more impulsive down move.  Note that in '29 and '87 the crashes happened the first trading day following a fibonacci 55 calendar days

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1063480094976348172003-09-13T12:08:00.000-07:002003-09-13T12:08:15.000-07:00

The WSJ ran two upbeat stories Friday, one on economists predicting the strongest growth in Q4 since 1999, and the other on anticipation that Oracle's after-hours earnings announcement would show solidifying business software sales.  The two are connected, as the economist are expecting business spending to begin to pick up, sustaining the economy as consumer spending begins to abate.

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1063432000540416752003-09-12T22:46:00.000-07:002003-09-12T22:48:40.220-07:00

Prechter exhorted the faithful this week to resist the temptation of wave 2 bullish optimism, as wave 2's are wont to cause. He compared the statistics of prior recoveries to today's. The recoveries of the period from 1949-1989 were quite strong; the recovery after the Bush I recession of 1991 was middling, and the current recovery is downright weak, no more than "a temporary respite within a

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1063429830632424652003-09-12T22:10:00.000-07:002003-09-12T22:10:30.666-07:00

STU called a possible top for wave 2 at Monday's highs. The wave action Tues and Wed was a clear five-wave impulse down, and the action Thu and Fri (today) has been sloppy and corrective. Accordingly, supports the case for a change in trend. But is this THE top? Not yet clear. Monday should be down at the open, or if not, down sharply Tues and Wed.

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1063162844633429782003-09-09T20:00:00.000-07:002003-09-09T20:00:44.666-07:00

Well, it hasn't come to that. But his poll numbers are plummeting and his popularity is evaporating as fast as his Dad's. Today's WSJ had a commentary called "Bush's Talk About Spending Discipline Is So Much Hot Air" next to a news report that the deficit would crest $500B shortly. The out-of-control spending involved Medicare, AIDS in Africa, homeland security and of course nation building

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1063159683058940272003-09-09T19:08:00.000-07:002003-09-09T20:14:29.086-07:00

Today a senator introduced punitive tariffs to force the Chinese to revalue the Yuan. Is this good policy? It certainly is risky - it is the type of attitude that happened in the 1930s with the Smoot-Hawley tariff that led to a beggar-thy-neighbor death spiral of world trade. Not a surprise for the Yelnick worldview, as the social mood now most resembles the early '30s, and we shouldn't be

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1063133635291400042003-09-09T11:53:00.000-07:002003-09-09T11:53:55.290-07:00

Larry Katz has updated his e-wave forecast here.  Larry is a very good tech analyst and looks at a variety of indicators to cross-correlate where we are in the wave pattern.  As the summer trading range developed, he projected one of two outcomes: (1) another up move of the magnitude of Mar-Jun (bullish), or (2) a false breakout and then serious drop, much like the summer of '98 (

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1063067972979464972003-09-08T17:39:00.000-07:002003-09-08T23:45:57.993-07:00

A loyal Yelnick reader and sometime (but always constructive) critic commented on how optimistic the Silicon Valley Tea Leaves had become - was Yelnick becoming a bull? Yelnick calls them as he sees them, so if optimism is afoot, it will be reported. But before you delight in such a turnaround, I must add that optimism is what a bear would expect in a wave 2. One can get a good read on where

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1062967357148195592003-09-07T13:42:00.000-07:002003-09-07T13:42:37.160-07:00

Zoran forwarded to Yelnick a translation of the Jackson Hole speech by Greenspan.  For those of you who have listened to Greenspan speak, or God forbid read one of his speeches, you realize he speaks with multisyllabic obscurity for a reason - if the mysterious ways of the financial priesthood were to become widely known, it would move markets against their wishes.   

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1062956163679064482003-09-07T10:36:00.000-07:002003-09-07T10:36:03.590-07:00

Zoran reports that the Australian index, the SPI, appears to have topped last week.  Occasionally the SPI presages to S&P.  More support for the STU view that the top may come early this week.  if so, it creates one of the great shorting opportunities of our lifetime.  Yelnick has commented that one way to play the ewave analysis is wait for the end of wave 2 before taking a

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1062808783958404652003-09-05T17:39:00.000-07:002003-09-05T17:39:43.866-07:00

The STU also reports that bullishness among investment advisors continues to rise and is hitting levels not seen until just before the '87 crash. Also, insiders are selling $44 for every $1 they buy, a level last seen right before the 28% drop in the S&P into the Sep01 low. This is what to expect at the end of a wave 2.

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1062807637139351222003-09-05T17:20:00.000-07:002003-09-05T17:22:16.290-07:00

One down day, and the STU sees the end of wave 2 is just a few days away. Recall that we are in wave C of 2 since the Mar03 low. Wave C is breaking out into a five wave pattern, which is expected. The first 4 waves have already occurred, with the summer trading range since Jun17 representing a wave iv triangle. We are now in the final wave v. This wave v has subdivided into its own

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1062701140896149682003-09-04T11:45:00.000-07:002003-09-04T13:00:44.053-07:00

Patents are rapidly rising in pre-eminence as we enter a period where large companies are much more nimble in buying or building new innovations than previously, avoiding the mistakes of IBM and DEC in the PC era of the early '80s.   Given that the innovator can be copied faster than they can establish a market position, IP becomes the critical competitive barrier.  InterTrust's success

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1062655459537481342003-09-03T23:04:00.000-07:002003-09-04T11:37:19.536-07:00

Fenwick & West publishes a quarterly VC survey whose conclusion for Q2 provides support for a rebound in VC, including (most telling) an increase in valuations. Deals in the hotter spaces (social software for example) report VCs cold-calling to get in. We could see a remarkable switch in a short time from a buyers market to a sellers market. The Fenwick report's conclusion reads: Conclusion

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1062621917883640962003-09-03T13:45:00.000-07:002003-09-03T14:29:49.340-07:00

The STU has now more fully joined the Yelnick view that we remain in a Wave 2 which will retrace 78% of the Wave 1 down since mar02, just as the two prior wave 2's in the Dow both retraced that far. Normally wave 2s retrace 61.8%, but these aren't normal times, and the extreme retracement recapitulates the extreme heights of the mania. A number of pundits expect a poor Sep/Oct but they may be

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1062615616733534002003-09-03T12:00:00.000-07:002003-09-03T12:24:22.780-07:00

A flurry of articles and activities show the growing optimism in the Valley. The WSJ had two articles, summmarized in Corante (the online WSJ requires paid subscription) as follows: Bets are on again - Wall Street Journal (sub req) The Wall Street Journal reports that the VC firms of Sand Hill Road are starting to poke around hot technology sectors for new deals. Investments in early-stage

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1062011666328461362003-08-27T12:14:00.000-07:002003-08-27T12:14:26.330-07:00

Prechter's EWI site has posted their primarydeflation analysis. Worth studying. Prechter defines deflation as follows: "Just as inflation is an expansion inthe supply of money and credit, deflation is a contraction in the supply ofmoney and credit. Deflation is not falling prices. Falling prices are aconsequence of deflation. It is dangerous to confuse the two ideas becauseprices can fall

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1061818992491022832003-08-25T06:43:00.000-07:002003-08-25T06:49:13.313-07:00

Thinking about the K Wave question: will the coming always-on world being brought to us by widespread broadband and wireless connectivity be the new factor of production that takes us out of the K-Wave Winter and starts the cycle anew? A broader new factor is digitization, of which the always-on world is a subset. It may finally take us out of the 'paperless' office into a new paradigm where

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1061694276554865832003-08-23T20:04:00.000-07:002003-08-23T20:32:41.606-07:00

Two positive reports from Intel and Motorola, as reported by the NY Times. Intel sees increased demand for chips, and Moto sees stronger demand for cell phones. In tech markets, increased orders for chips reflects growing optimism by systems vendors, and so chips tend to recover first, followed by, followed by PCs/systems and then software. In the cell phone market, increased orders for

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1061614984201709412003-08-22T22:03:00.000-07:002003-08-22T22:03:04.130-07:00

Back in the Kondretioff Fall period of the 1980s, when Volcker dramatically limited the supply of money in order to break inflationary expectations, we watched money supply indicators slavishly for insight as to where markets might be headed.  Now as we deflate through the Kondretioff Winter, we pay little attention to the money supply.  Greenspan is continuing his massive

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1061515766996624372003-08-21T18:29:00.000-07:002003-08-25T06:41:06.600-07:00

Yelnick has received some questions regarding whether the Kondretioff Wave conditions have been satisfied, which would be another supporting condition for a new bull market, or whether a major deflationary debacle awaits.  Like all cycles, the K Wave is more descriptive than prescriptive (Elliott Waves are more prescriptive than cycles), but provides enormous insight into our current

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1061250025187893542003-08-18T16:40:00.000-07:002003-08-18T16:40:25.200-07:00

Sy Harding in StreetSmart has an excellent analysis here of mixed economic signals.  Summary: real estate cooling may be offset by slight uptick in manufacturing, but jobs figure took a tumble in July after a stabilizing June.  This on top of revisions in past growth rates (downwards) and expectations that Q2 growth of 2.4% is largely due to one-time Iraq war blip.  Also, increased

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1061247596500755602003-08-18T15:59:00.000-07:002003-08-19T00:19:26.363-07:00

STU has moved the count to Yelnick's: we are still in wave 2, and have a final 5th wave up to go.  We have been in either a fourth wave triangle, which ended two weeks ago, or in a fifth wave diagonal triangle since early July.  This count fits the corrective behavior of the market over the last 7 weeks.  Either way the prognosis is the same:  we should see a little more upside, then a

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1060988420069838442003-08-15T16:00:00.000-07:002003-08-15T16:00:16.666-07:00

I have held off announcing the count as we wend though the summer doldrums.  Where we have been is a major wave 1 down to Oct02 and a wave 2 back up to this summer.  Question has been whether wave 2 has ended, or has one final 5th wave thrust up.  STU initally held wave 2 as ending on Jun17; now they see it as ending on Jul31 with a truncated wave [v] top that barely got back to the

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1060824294489690382003-08-13T18:24:00.000-07:002003-08-13T18:29:36.123-07:00

Yelnick has previously commented that the dividend tax 'cut' was a poor idea.  Double taxation on dividends is less a double tax than a tax shelter - it shelters growing companies from being asked to distribute their retained earnings in dividends.  Without the this tax shield, they either grow slower or have to go to the ever volatile capital markets for growth capital.   The WSJ

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1060668723027929432003-08-11T23:12:00.000-07:002003-08-12T18:07:32.963-07:00

Prop 13 in California in 1978 presaged the tax revolt that led Reagan into office and defined 25 years of Republican policy (marred only by Bush Sr. making a Faustian bargain with Congress to limit spending in exchange for a new tax increase, a reneging on his pledge of 'Read my lips, no new taxes' and a contributing factor to his subsequent electoral defeat).    The California

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1060626317014749972003-08-11T11:25:00.000-07:002003-08-11T11:25:16.976-07:00

The Merky News reported today that: "Silicon Valley's summer fling with initial public offerings is over, making it clear an important part of the technology industry's long-awaited recovery won't unfold quickly.    "Four local companies launched IPOs in just six weeks: FormFactor of Livermore on June 12, InterVideo of Fremont on July 17, iPass of Redwood Shores on July 24 and

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1060567606536516462003-08-10T19:06:00.000-07:002003-08-10T19:06:46.553-07:00

Friday's WSJ ran a front-page story on how difficult it may turn for new companies to make money in WiFi.  Why?  The quickness of the market dominant tech companies to respond.  In the prior high-tech cycles, the entrenched tech leaders were often overtaken by the little furry mammal companies.  This time the entrenched leaders have stolen from the VC playbook and quickly jumped into

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1060566868120570452003-08-10T18:54:00.000-07:002003-08-10T19:06:40.676-07:00

LBJ escalated US forces in Vietnam based on the Gulf of Tonkin incident, where he claimed North Vietnamese gunboats had attacked US ships.  There was almost immediate dispute over the President's version of the incident, and it led to the phrase 'Credibility Gap.'  LBJ talked of victory, TV showed a quagmire.  LBJ's Credibility Gap grew to Grand Canyonesque proportions after the

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1060224142692401892003-08-06T19:42:00.000-07:002003-08-06T19:42:22.596-07:00

Good post, Ethan. Yes, some speculation is occurring, but this does not have the characteristic of a speculative blowoff. Bubbles burst after a speculative frenzy caused by easy credit. Credit fuels the frenzy, money is misspent on baubles, and when the bubble bursts, the money created by debt evaporates. Left behind is overcapacity, bankruptcy, fierce price competiton, deflation. Think

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1060208667818256122003-08-06T15:24:00.000-07:002003-08-06T15:31:42.430-07:00

In his previous post, Duncan said, "The housing increase is not really a bubble, since a bubble would reflect speculative excess, whereas we have so far seen refinancings with some $ taken off the table as opposed to borrowing to speculate (e.g., 'no down payment' types of purchases). Bubble or not, history says it will correct & this will sap what little staying power still exists in the

Ethannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1060207665729401632003-08-06T15:07:00.000-07:002003-08-06T15:07:45.750-07:00

When Sirius, the Dog Star, rose in the evening sky, the Romans called the time the Dog Days of August.  As we entered August, the market, which had doggedly kept afloat all summer, has begun to roll over, and now may be turning into a serious dog. The key level of SP962 was breached today, and although the market rebounded, it presages a further drop into next week.   We have

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1060205485976941742003-08-06T14:31:00.000-07:002003-08-06T14:31:25.960-07:00

The Federal budget deficit will be $455 billion, roughly 50 percent larger than the White House estimated in February, the President's Office of Management and Budget said this afternoon. The projected deficit announced today, for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, is up sharply from the $304 billion deficit the budget office foresaw six months ago. Unless conditions change

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1060205423329249712003-08-06T14:30:00.000-07:002003-08-06T14:30:23.310-07:00

> Tech results don't augur well for spending recovery - ReutersResults from several major tech companies suggest the long-awaited techrecovery hasn't arrived yet. Motorola posted weaker-than-expectedquarterly revenue and reduced its forecasts. Lucent said it would miss itsprofit targets. Intel's results beat expectations, but CFO Andy Bryantsaid he saw no signs of companies

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1060208062411899232003-08-06T12:14:00.000-07:002003-08-06T15:14:43.046-07:00

More indications of a turn in eCommerce Times. "This Valley seems to function in 15-year waves -- and we're at the beginning of the next cycle," says Bill Tai, general manager at Charles River Ventures. Mood lifters include: * Better business conditions. * Surging tech stocks. * A "back-to-the-lab" movement. The glimmers of hope have lured back entrepreneurs like Joe Kraus, who

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1060137480372111892003-08-05T19:38:00.000-07:002003-08-05T19:38:00.390-07:00

The wave action since July 31 is fairly clear: we have done a little wave 1 down, a wave 2 back, and are now part of the way through a sharp wave 3 down.  Tomorrow should continue down to finish this wave 3, then reverse.  The reversal will tell a lot to resolve whether we are still have further upside this summer, or whether Jun17 is truly the end of wave 2 since October.  We still

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1060094982105330212003-08-05T07:49:00.000-07:002003-08-05T07:49:42.086-07:00

AlwaysOn reports that Jim Breyer of Accel thinks "that we’re near the bottom of the venture capital cycle. We’re not quite there yet, but we’re getting close."  He adds:   "Our best experiences have been with startups that deliver their first product to market within 12 to 18 months ... If the product development cycle is longer than 18 months, then the chances of matching the

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1059963130523453942003-08-03T19:12:00.001-07:002003-08-03T19:12:10.523-07:00

The developing triangle appears to have ended, impulsively down, on Thurs/Fri.  This triangle could be a wave 4 with a 5 to follow, but the consensus of ewavers is that it was a wave B trianngle within a subwave 2 reversal of the peak on Jun17, and the uptrend since last March, and indeed last October has ended.  Next week should tell.     The Bonds Away! reversal (rates spiking

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1059963129585650912003-08-03T19:12:00.000-07:002003-08-03T19:12:09.586-07:00

The developing triangle appears to have ended, impulsively down, on Thurs/Fri. This triangle could be a wave 4 with a 5 to follow, but the consensus of ewavers is that it was a wave B trianngle within a subwave 2 reversal of the peak on Jun17, and the uptrend since last March, and indeed last October has ended. Next week should tell. The Bonds Away! reversal (rates spiking up) means herd

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1059962289107225922003-08-01T18:56:00.000-07:002003-08-03T19:10:58.763-07:00

CBS Marketwatch reported that they don't know when previously the T bond gained 150 bp in 6 weeks. The 10-year Treasury bond hit 4.6% Friday from 3.076% on June 16. Of course, six weeks ago the US deficit wasn't headed towards $450B or higher per year for the foreseeable future. The PIMCO bond fund has been returning 9% for the past two years, but the party appears to be over. the Elliott

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1059614921313331692003-07-30T18:28:00.000-07:002003-07-30T18:28:41.256-07:00

Wave count is at a tipping point. Some form of top occurred on Jun17 in the major indicies, Jun6 on the small stock indicies.  We have been in wave 2 up from Oct02.  It has retraced 61.8% of the drop into Oct02, so the normal Elliott pattern is satisfied.  But - there is always a but - Yelnick has noted that the two prior wave 2 reversals in the Dow (sep00-mar01, and sep01-mar02) went

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1058860137261245932003-07-22T00:48:00.000-07:002003-07-22T00:48:57.130-07:00

Been off the air a bit due to a broken Blogspot, but they *finally* fixed it.  I tried to light a fire under Pyra, the company behind Blogger and Blogspot, but now that they have been bought by Google, they took their time about it.  And good time they did!   Looks like we may be about to see some action in this market.  After going essentially nowhere for the past month, we appear to

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1057986230090540292003-07-10T21:56:00.000-07:002003-07-15T16:56:22.720-07:00

The 78.6% retracement level (which is a fibonacci number, the square root of phi, 61.8%) has held so far. This number is peculiarly interesting in this bear market. Normally wave 2's retrace 61.8%, but in this post-mania market, most wave 2's have gone 78.6%: > the first wave [1] to Sep00 after the peak was reversed 78.6% by wave [2] to Mar01 > the next wave (1) of [3] to Sep01 (post 9/11) was

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1057889056671906452003-07-10T19:04:00.000-07:002003-07-15T16:56:54.630-07:00

Yelnick has been watching the indicators of a bottom in the real economy in Silicon Valley, Ground Zero for the bear market. It appears that an interim bottom in VC investing occurred last Dec02 (some pundits say Feb03), as VC activity has picked up, although valuations haven't budged much. Yelnick noticed a change in attitude of the recently disemployed from seaking jobs to working on business

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1057628934872940762003-07-07T18:48:00.000-07:002003-07-07T18:48:54.740-07:00

A famous 'line in the sand' was the Oregon Territory's Fifty-Four Forty or Fight! Today we have a little wave 2 reversing up to 78.6% of the little wave 1 down from Jun17. Usually 78.6% is the Elliott Territory line in the sand. Although Elliott rules allow a wave 2 to go all the way back to the start of wave 1, typically when it reverses past 78.6% it means it wasn't a wave 2 at all but the

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1056772074124642272003-06-27T20:47:00.000-07:002003-06-27T20:47:53.960-07:00

Wave pattern looks like a stacking of 1 down - 2 up at smaller and smaller degrees. This usually sets up a serious decline, as happened last Sept after a series of 1s and 2s. The big 1 - 2 is the first drop off the 2000 highs to Sep00, followed by a reversal most of the way back to Mar01; the second is the drop after 9/11, followed by a reversal to Mar02, where the Dow got to over 10600, just

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1056438179568313012003-06-24T00:02:00.000-07:002003-07-04T00:38:54.093-07:00

Continuing from the commentary yesterday, what is the implication of the Fed pumping the market? There was much discussion in the '80s during the bailout of the S&L crisis of moral risk for debt, the risk that if the cavalry comes in at the last minute to bail out poor banking practices, the bankers will learn to lend in an even more risky fashion. Similarly, when the Plunge Protection Team was

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-1056345113182722792003-06-22T22:11:00.000-07:002003-07-04T00:38:04.070-07:00

One can explain the current market market situation through Fed actions, as follows. In 1998 after the Asian Flu and the LTCM debacle, the Fed pumped liquidity into major US banks. Whether this was through the rumored Plunge Protection Team to intervene in equity markets is still unknown. Normally the lag from the Fed pumping liquidity to economic impact on Main Street is 18 months +/- 6

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-2004376672003-06-18T21:19:00.000-07:002003-06-18T21:19:40.486-07:00

From JP Morgan's daily newsletter, investigations which could substantiate the tie between emotional-driven financial decisions and stock movements, the foundation for Elliott Wave theory: Neuroscience may soon shed light on all sorts of economic behavior, The New York Times reported yesterday. Researchers are busy scanning the brains of people as they make economic decisions, barter, compete,

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-2004279192003-06-15T23:02:00.000-07:002003-06-15T23:02:13.226-07:00

Even the toughest ewavers are beginning to look for a bull count. But not Prechter! He sent out a report to put it all in perspective. Of course, he also missed the bull run from 1994 - 2000, so convinced he was the top was in. But his current view is worth contemplating. In effect, he pleads guilty of crying Bear! too often. By being so ready to call the end of wave 2 and missing it so

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-2003966732003-06-06T21:18:00.000-07:002003-06-06T21:18:41.430-07:00

You gotta love this rally. Step by step it turns bears into bulls, or sheep. Yet a pullback is due. This last few weeks is a classic wave extension, which tend to go 1.618 the first leg. Usually this happens in a wave 3 or 5 of an impulse, or in a wave C of an ABC correction. Extensions reflect the momentum players jumping on the trend; in this cases, bulls frothing at the mouth. Today in

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-2003873952003-06-04T22:10:00.000-07:002003-06-04T22:10:44.793-07:00

By cresting Dow9043 intraday, the Dow joins the S&P and Nasdaq, which both exceeded their Dec highs a few days ago. The last ewave holdout, Prechter's STU, has now moved to the Yelnick count. The count in all market indexes is now wave 2 from the Oct lows. And this is behaving exactly like a wave 2 should - drawing everyone including the uber bears into the view that the bull is back. When

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-2003823712003-06-03T21:08:00.000-07:002003-06-03T21:48:30.000-07:00

The Yelnick thread has new members, so I thought it worthwhile to give a brief intro to ewaves. A better tutorial is available for free at Club EWI. Ellliott developed his theory in the 30s. Prechter picked it up in the 70s and made a killing calling the 1982-87 period correctly. (Typical wave 1, many people were skeptical of the bull.) Then, Prechter called the top multiple times in the

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-2003771762003-06-02T20:08:00.000-07:002003-06-02T20:08:31.460-07:00

Today is a classic reversal day - break of trendlines followed by an impulsive 5-wave drop below the trendline, particularly on the Naz. Dow is hovering right above its upper trendline. Dow still might make a second run at 9043, its Dec high, but watch closely to see if S&P breaks SP980. If the reversal has happened, it shouldn't. Some of the Elliott Wave pundits with sites went short today.

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-2003717562003-06-01T20:31:00.000-07:002003-06-01T20:31:23.603-07:00

According to Ned Davis, as reported in the EWI monthly report Friday, bullish sentiment has not been this high since 1987, just before the crash! The STU goes even further, and compares this to the bullishness at the end of great wave 2 in 1930 after the Crash of 1929. The true market debacle followed. Is the market about to get a crash course in contrarian thinking? The bullishness has so

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-2003587732003-05-29T12:34:00.000-07:002003-05-29T12:34:21.136-07:00

These fast pops off interim bottoms happen due to short squeezes. Looking back, you can see these sharp rallies on Oct11, Feb13, Mar12, and now May27. Interesting question is why are the shorts being so victimized so frequently? One view, which is circulating with some seriousness, is market manipulation by the Fed. This view goes back to 1997-8, when rumors flew that the Fed had

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-2003556372003-05-28T20:51:00.000-07:002003-05-28T20:51:38.043-07:00

The S&P hit the neckline of the massive H&S pattern today, then backed off. Looks like tomorrow will be a down day. We may have topped. If so, we will have kissed the neckline goodbye and *finally* begin the 3 of 3. If not, watch closely the SP955-975 range - if we break through, this rally has a ways to go. If we stay in that range, then this is one more annoying hickey and we should all

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-2003486972003-05-27T14:55:00.000-07:002003-05-27T14:55:56.483-07:00

The Yelnick preferred scenario is that we are still in a wave 2 since October, and wave 3 has not yet started. Most of the Elliott Wave community counts wave 2 as having come back in December, and us as being in the waves [i] and [ii] down of wave 3. The continued corrective activity makes this count more and more difficult to sustain. As reported recently, the Nasdaq count has switched to the

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-2003432732003-05-26T22:10:00.000-07:002003-05-27T08:48:00.000-07:00

I mentioned recently (May 7 post) that we may have seen a bottom in tech in December. VC activity has picked up, noticably. MSNBC ran a good analysis of this change. Recent information, however, suggests that this pick up may not yet signal a change in trend. The pick up in Q1 seems to be tapering off. Worse, Fenwick & West report that this optimism is not being reflected in valuations and

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-2003400202003-05-25T18:57:00.000-07:002003-05-25T19:19:13.000-07:00

When Reagan was shot, he had enough sense left to drop a line from a movie - Honey, I forgot to duck! The Bulls may soon feel the same way. There is a cauldron of trouble brewing. Another weak Secy of the Treasury is letting the Dollar free-fall. Deflation. Slow economy through 2003. The Fog of Peace in Iraq. Increased terrorist activity. North Korean Nukes R Us. Will this soup be enough

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-2003308102003-05-22T22:07:00.000-07:002003-05-22T22:07:55.490-07:00

Magic number today was Dow8618, the 61.8% retracement of wave ii. Market hit near it and reversed a couple of times, then popped through to 8628 and faded at the close. Wave ii could have ended today, but more likely has one more pop up to go. Futures are up at the moment.

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-2003201662003-05-20T20:33:00.000-07:002003-05-20T20:33:51.180-07:00

Mad Cow disease was spotted in Canada, and blamed for the market drop. Elliott knows better. Now that the Bear has left the barn, we have left the corrective manure behind. The wave pattern is a clear 5 wave impulse down from the morning high on Friday. If we stay with the orthodox Elliott count, we ended wave [ii] of 3 down and have entered wave [iii] of 3. The last three days was a little

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-2003142032003-05-19T17:24:00.000-07:002003-05-19T17:24:48.943-07:00

The decisive break today down makes it quite possible that the 3 of 3 has started. We had been in an ending diagonal triangle and had the possibility that the down move was wave 4 with wave 5 to go. The impulse down today broke through the levels that would support that count, and hence increased the likelihood that this wave [ii] from Mar12 is done, and wave [iii] of 3 of (3) has begun. The

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-2003096212003-05-18T22:19:00.000-07:002003-05-18T22:19:15.403-07:00

The ewavers are beginning to falter in light of the rampant bullishness, yet nothing suggests anything other than a typical wave 2 bear market rally with attendent extreme complacency. It could have ended last week, but most likely a pullback followed by a final little pop higher is in order. If S&P breaks its Dec high of 954, the S&P count will shift to match the Nasdaq - we would be in a

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-2002937242003-05-14T22:50:00.000-07:002003-05-14T23:02:57.000-07:00

Tomorrow is a lunar eclipse. This sometimes brings out the worst in the ewave community. Even the Great One himself, Prechter, launched yet another interim bulletin this morning to encourage his faithful to stay the course. His charting was clear and concise - more on that below - but his long preamble was intended to show how the Carolan Spiral Calendar could be made to substantiate the

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-2002821682003-05-12T21:45:00.000-07:002003-05-12T21:55:34.000-07:00

The ewavers are still scratching their collective heads (and running their fingernails down their whiteboards) about this persistent wave 2. Time for a broader perspective. I have mentioned a UCLA physics prof who has tried to curve fit bear markets following manic peaks. His analysis is - as the bear lengthens, so do the length of the waves. Hence he predicts we will not see the 3 of the

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-2002812542003-05-12T16:45:00.000-07:002003-05-12T16:45:37.000-07:00

Kevin Werbach's Werblog reported today that an analysis of weblog.com statistics here shows that the number of weblog updates is not just growing but in last few months has grown much faster. Thus the outing of blogging which happened around the start of the war is now being reflected in the statistics of blog usage.

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-2002759902003-05-11T18:51:00.000-07:002003-05-11T19:02:28.000-07:00

The current count looks like we are ending a little wave 4 to be followed by a 5 to complete wave C of 2. The ewavers have all backed off trying to pick the top. If Monday opens weak, little wave 4 may have a few more days to go. If Monday opens strong, we should zip up in the final 5 wave. Look for possible top during the next fib turn period of May 20 - 31. How high might it go? We have

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-2002597232003-05-07T23:27:00.000-07:002003-05-08T19:23:35.000-07:00

As we near the end of a wave 2, the extreme bullishness reflects a higher level of the same bullishness that got us into the mania in the first place. Mutual funds and day traders are buying because everyone else is & they don't want to be left behind - significantly, not because their analysis of individual stocks or of the market says to do so. It is goin' up 'cuz it's goin' up. The

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-2002538272003-05-06T22:52:00.000-07:002003-05-08T19:24:26.000-07:00

Prechter, Wavespeak & Zoran all launched mid-day bulletins today. You gotta love Prechter. On Friday he says no way will it poke above Dow8612. Today it did, and Prechter stuck to his guns. Ok, so what he read as a wave 5 on Friday was only a 3, and needed a final wave 5, so that is what happened. But this is it. He compares this to his most epic call, a call for the ages: in Sep 1985, in

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5165875.post-2002426952003-05-05T00:06:00.000-07:002003-05-05T00:06:56.130-07:00

Wonderful moment in the market - the moment of truth for the Elliott world. The core ewave pundits (Prechter, Neely, etc.) have said over the past week that it is a good time to short the market (although Neely may have flipped back to bullishness Friday according to Zoran). This at a time when bullishness is growing and short positions diminishing. The ewave true believers may be a

ddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15652192144905028920noreply@blogger.com